However, there is a consensus in the oil industry that $50 is a break-even number, not number that leads to growth, so the remainder of this year and next year will continue to be challenging for these companies, he said. While the energy industry shed jobs in 2015 and 2016, many companies have been hiring back — at lower wages — in 2017, indicating companies have found a way to made $47 oil work. “Now that wages are coming down, it will be a little easier for sectors outside oil and gas to compete,” Hirsch said. Meanwhile, retail sales have come back to a new high of consumer spending in the past 12 months, which is a good sign of consumer confidence and optimism. On the other hand, the recession also potentially cost retailers about $39 billion in foregone sales so retailers may feel they have a long way to go to catch up, said Hirsch. “While retailers’ revenue is climbing, so are their expenses, from labour costs to heating and electricity costs. That has left margins for many retailers shockingly thin,” he said. Housing starts from March to July marked an increase in the annualized rate of around 30,000 starts. Prior to the recession, starts were above 40,000 and then fell to below 20,000 during the recession.

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